England Squad

Prop
Sheridan, Turner, Freshwater, White

Hooker
Chuter, Mears

Second Row
Kay, Jones, Grewcock, Palmer

Back Row
Corry, Sanderson, Moody, Forrrester, Rees, Lund

Scrum Half
Perry, Richards

Fly Half
Hodgson, Flood, Goode

Centre
Allen, Tait, Noon

Back Three
Lewsey, Cueto, Balshaw, Sackey, Morgan, Cohen

As expected, except Morgan is deemed fit, Turner for Vickery and Sackey for Varndell, not happy about the latter. Also is see Goode ahead of Lamb, which is a shame.


There is a lot of discussion about James Forrester and particularly his performance against Leinster. What I will say is that Forrester does usually drift, part of the point of Forrester is that he doesn't take contact, but looks for a gap or passes. I have had concerns about Forrester for some time but I still believe only a run of games at the highest level will decide it for me. As an example, on the 2005 Churchill Cup tour, I saw Sanderson miss tackle after tackle, it was a shocking display and I stated that he should never wear an England shirt again. His next match was against New Zealand last year, that shut me up. I understand your view that he was cowardly, but I saw it slightly differently. To me he was struggling, but the look was a bit more confusion and frustration, he had his eye gouged early and was on the receiving end of all sorts. This is not his forte, and he did not know how to get out of it, he needs to learn. In a better back row, or one with a better plan, a player like Forrester would not be allowed to get sucked in like that. Having said that I think he did OK physically, but just wasn't his game, and he needs to learn how to turn it around.

One thing occured to me while I was trying to decide if Corry, Forrester or possibly Sanderson should start at 8. If I really were England selector, where I had all the resources available, and the time to make the decision I was being paid to make, I would know by now if Forrester were up to the job. I would have gone through video of every contact Forrester has made in the premiership for the last 18 months or more, I would have worked with the guy and had long chats with his coaches, I would have gone frame by frame on the Leinster match. Following all this if he was not up to it he would not be in the squad, if I decided he were up to it, he would start.

I think the Forrester/Rees comparison is similar to the Allen/Flood comparison I made earlier. I know Rees and Allen will be effective in attack against any international team, if a few percent less than at club level, but they will not make tragic mistakes. This is because Rees and Allen run brilliant lines, something that is either available or isn't. Flood and Forrester do things a bit differently, they try things, poke about a bit, a Guscott-esque shake of the hips and accelerate, this is more prone to go wrong. Given the options available I am prepared to give Flood time to develop his skill, and I have no doubts about his eventual success. Forrester should have had the same introduction, but hasn't, but given the options or the World Cup I want to get him up and running. I would much rather throw him in at the deep end now, rather than appaluading performances against Italy in the Six Nations. If he fails then so be it, I do have doubts, but the guy offers something I don't want to throw away with out being sure. Rees that has shown incredible class in his short premiership career. He picks running lines and takes them with outstanding pace, he shows a sharp rugby brain in attack that few international backs cvan match, and I don't say that lightly. He has also been putting the game reading to good effect in defence, and is strong enough and skilled enough to work well at the break down. I have been trying to get Rees and England cap for twelve months, he was in the squad this time last year before being injured, and I am expecting him to make an appearance this Autumn.

I have noticed a slight problem with our centre pairing for the four tests, as we can only start players for three matches.
If you like sudoko, you'll love this:
It seems that Noon and Tait might be scheduled to play together, but these are our only two OCs, with Lewsey being our backup, but Lewsey will probably be first choice in the back three. So if we play Noon and Tait we will either have to split them up against SA, or pull in Smith for one game outside Allen or Flood, or play Cohen!. My concern is that we end up messing around the centre partnership, again. What we need is a settled pairing and let them play consecutive matches. Given SA's slightly weakened squad and the potential banana skin of Argentina I would play my first choice partnership for the first three games, and put out an alternative for the second SA test at the end. My thinking is if we have a settled team playing their third consecutive match when we meet SA we should win well, this would make it easier to justify variation in the second test. If we lose against SA in the first test then we are also justified in making a switch for the third test. The alternative, worst case, is to put out a second string against Argentina, lose, then put out our first choice against SA when we are still unfamiliar, and lose again.
I would play:
Allen, Tait v NZ
Allen, Tait v Argentina
Allen, Tait v SA
Flood, Noon v SA


I think the analysis of our possession stats is key to how I want to play. During Englands peak 2001-2003 we maintained close to 60% possession against the top teams, but more than that we had the best back row around. We were skilled at getting good ball for ourselves, and slow ball for the opposition. Back, Johnson and Dallglio are geniuses at slowing the opposition ball. Currently we may be able to get the majority of possession, but we no longer have the best back row, the opposition does. So now we get slow ball and the opposition get quick ball, making us look stupid. To counter this we firstly need someone, anyone, from our back row to actually make it to the breakdown. Secondly we need to take the game away from their back row, so we need players who can keep the ball alive and off the floor.


Turners selection does show the paucity in the specialist tighthead area. Turner is about 34, not the best, but obviously they have made a tactical call on Vickery and given him more time with his club. Bizzarely it is Bath who have all the tightheads, with the injured Stevens the most prominent. We usually go with Bell, but this time went for Turner from Sale. At Bath Flatman is on his way back, and can play tighthead, I think Barnes may also have played tighthead for Bath, but I am not sure.

I the last hundred years we have only had five regular tightheads
Leonard (1826-2003)
Garforth (1954-2004)
Vickery (1997-date)
Stevens was set to join the list, but is not there yet, and White or Bell fill in when the others are injured.

European Cup Round 1

Looking at three things I have tried to see how good the results were:
The league points achieved (i.e. 5 for a bonus point win)
Whether it was achieved home or away
The quality of the opposition

My Group winners based only on round 1 results
1) Perpignan runner up Castres
2) Leinster runner up Edinburgh
3) Stade Francais runner up Sale
4) Munster runner up Cardiff
5) Ulster runner up Llanelli
6) Biaritz runner up Borders


How I read the 12 matches:
Top away wins
Cardiff 4-0 away win in France
Munster 4-1 win away at Welford Road
Llanelli 5-1 win away

Top wins
Biarritz 5-0 win over good team
Ulster 4-0 win over top team when Ulster were unfancied
Leinster 5-0 win over top team( I still think Gloucester did well, but that just reflects better on Leinster)

Expected win, but still good
Perpignan 5-0 away to a better than you think Treviso
Stade Francais 5-0 away win
Borders 5-0 it was at home to Parma, but Borders aren't fancied but they did all they could.

Good away losers
Castres 1-4, not fancied at all but stil went to Wasps and got a point
Edinburgh, lost 1-4 but were close to a win in France
Sale, 1-4 got the bonus point away, they would have expected to win but played badly but still got a crucial point

England Squad Prediction

This is the 30 I expect for the AI, I waited untill all the injuries were known.

Prop
Sheridan, Vickery, Freshwater, White

Hooker
Chuter, Mears, Thompson

Second Row
Kay, Jones, Grewcock, Kennedy

Back Row
Corry, Sanderson, Moody, Forrrester, Rees

Scrum Half
Perry, Richards, Bemand

Fly Half
Hodgson, Flood, Lamb

Centre
Allen, Tait, Noon

Back Three
Lewsey, Cueto, Balshaw, Varndell, Cohen

If he goes for two full fifteens to cover the three player rule, rather than the squad of three hookers, scrum halfs and three fly halfs, then I will drop Thompson, Bemand and Lamb and add Lund, Smith and Van Gisbergen

I prefer Flood to Allen, but think his style of play requires more nurturing at international level. Flood "tries things", this is harder to get right as defences get tighter, the percentages get harder. Allen is more straight-forward, he runs good lines, passes and off loads, all less likely to go wrong than Flood. So Flood needs time from the bench, hopefully he will adjust quickly, but it needs more careful handling.

If it is experience we want we could have a world cup rerun?

Sheridan
Thompson
Vickery
Jones
Kay
Hill
Moody
Dallaglio

Perry
Wilkinson
Cohen
Catt
Tindall
Lewsey
Balshaw

9 Starters, 3 were used from the bench, and only 3 new players

Probable line up for New Zealand
Sheridan
Chuter
Vickery
Jones
Kay
Sanderson
Moody
Corry

Perry
Hodgson
Cueto
Allen
Tait
Lewsey
Balshaw

Gives us 3 World Cup starters, 2 who came on from the bench, and 1 who was left on the bench.
What's my point you ask?
Well there is a lot of talk of inexperience, but if a World Cup cap is by definition our most experienced player, then are we that bad? If we swap Hodgson and Sanderson for the injured Wilkinson and Hill? Cueto for Cohen? Even Corry was on the bench but unused. No, we are not much different; Sheridan, Sanderson, Hodgson, Cueto have been regulars for a few seasons, Chuter and Jones have been around for a while and have lots of top class club experience. So the only "inexperienced" selections would be Perry/Allen/Tait, and even here Perry is no novice and Tait has played the big stage by winning a Commonwealth silver medal and successfully faced Mortlock, the number two 13 in the world, and Allen just came through with credit against D'Arcy and O'Driscoll.


I am expecting AR to pick Cueto/Lewsey/Morgan. Based on previous England selections I would say the candidates are:
Voyce
Varndell
Tait
Cohen
Balshaw

If the rumours are true then Voyce will not be picked, and it also sems Varndell is slightly out of favour after Australia. I think AR may do what he did in Aus and pick Noon at 13 and move Tait to the wing, this I think would be a shame. I would prefer Cohen or Varndell, I will wait until the Munster game but I would prefer Varndell. I was going to save Varndell for later Autumn, but I am a crazy optimist. I laso expect AR to promote Balshaw to the bench.

Telegraph: Rugby to the BBC?

Firstly, Brian Moore is an employee of the BBC with a vested interest in more rugby on the BBC, this fact, whilst known by many, should be clearly stated. Lots of people dislike Stuart Barnes, I like him, but have switched Brian Moore to mute; it's a personal opinion. As for choice, I would love more people to watch rugby, but rugby was badly served by the BBC 40 minutes of rugby special!. Would the BBC show 5 games as Sky did with a 3 hour summary programme? You get what you pay for here, but it is is a valid debate about which is better for Rugby: one game squeezed in with other sports, or many games given full coverage but with lower viewing figures. I would encourage rugby fans to get Sky to boost those viewing figures rather than giving it to the BBC.

Developing young players

My tactic after 2007 is to let youngsters gain lots of experience in the initial two years, and then go back to pure form selection in the last two years. I would not just throw youngsters in carelessly, but I would pick them if they are good enough, if not our best; the right blend of youth and experience. It may be mean one of our best players loses out initially, but they will be experienced enough to come back. The idea is that you go into those final 18-24 months with a fixed squad, probably overlooking new talent unless they are breath takingly good. A good example of bad practice is the lack of caps Forrester has, especially when compared to Worsley. We all know Forrester is a great player, but is he great in an international? He is outstanding at the moment yet somehow we still have question marks about him that can only be answered in a test match. It does mean sitting down after the world cup and identifying those youngsters you think could make it, and more importantly are ready to be tested now, and even more importantly the experienced players you can't do without (Martin Johnson springs to mind). Then a plan must be developed, not like Tait; picked and dropped. We need to allow youngsters to find form at international level and be allowed to make mistakes along the way.

So this is how I would manage the 10 shirt; I would look to keep either and Hodgson and Wilkinson, and let the other go back to their club (injury to one or other would probably keep both involved), I would try and get Lamb and Flood lots of caps from the bench intially and as starters sooner rather than later. I would start them ahead of the "old pro" even if they are not better, but still good enough. I would do this until 2009 and then for the last 18-24 months would start picking soley on form again, so that Hodgson and Wilkinson would start and bench if they are the two best, even if I hadn't played them for nearly two years. My aim would be to be sure Lamb and Flood have 20-30 caps each by 2011, and as many of those from starting tough games as possible. If Cipriani comes on I would add him to the mix late in 2008.

European Cup Predictions

the runner up will come from a weak group not a strong one, so ....

Pool 1 - Wasps (Runner Up - Perpignan)
Pool 2 - Gloucester (Runner Up - Leinster)
Pool 3 - Stade Francais (Runner Up - Ospreys)
Pool 4 - Leicester (Runner Up - Munster)
Pool 5 - Toulouse (Runner Up - Ulster)
Pool 6 - Biaritzz (Runner Up - Saints)

Looking ahead, a starting line up for 2011?

Stevens
Hartley
Foster
Jones
Croft
Lund
Rees
Crane

Care
Wilkinson
Visser
Flood
Tait, M
Varndell
Tait, A

Likely starters for NZ match

I thought Coory should start but want I changed my mind. After the summer I was happy with Moody/Lund/Sanderson but after Sale v Tigers I thought Lund was not as sharp as Corry and as Sanderson was not an option on the vote I went for Corry. However, Forrester is on fire at the moment and Corry had another poorish match. So I think Forrester's time has finally come. With Moody looking destructive Moody/Sanderson/Forrester may be the way forward for now. Interesting piece on last weeks rugby club, they are still suspicious of Forrester at the breakdown, and view Dan Ward-Smith as a good choice. I have never seen Dan, so I can't personally pick him but I was moved by their views.

Sheridan/Hodgson/Abbott/Grewcock/Barnard/Corry all carrying knocks. I guess they would be fit to play at the weekend, but it is not the best preparation for the All Blacks. Mega=Dan's starting XV would be the current training XV, and a real possibility if the injuries continue.

The backline for training was:
Richards
Hodgson
Lewsey
Allen
Noon
Cueto
Morgan

Not the worst backline I have seen England put out under Robinson
With all the injuries there was even a chance Cipriani would be on the bench against NZ
I guess the choice was between three Wasps fly-halves Walder, King, but thankfully they chose Cipriani. Hodgson is the only fit fly-half, bringing in Cipriani is a great development choice. We know Walder and King, and neither are future contenders, we can guess that one of the other fly-halves will be fit for NZ, so this is just good practice from the management. For once I applaud them.

Balshaw/Voyce/Van Gisbergen/J S-D are unavailable, in Voyce's case by ARs choice rather than injury. It is also the wrong match to work with Varndell, and I am still a fan and want to see him involved later. The only other options for seasoned internationals are Cohen/Cueto/Lewsey. All the wing/fullback youngsters are a risk, with the notable exception of Morgan, despite his inexperience internationally he is solid as a rock, his defense and catching aided by astute reading of the game. Although his running is not the best or most illusive his rugby brain allows him to pick a great line and put his wingers away. For all these reasons I am expecting a starting back line for NZ of Lewsey/Cueto/Morgan; Barnes and Greenwood read it right on the rugby Club.

This is who I think will play not who I want to play. Given the injuries and who will recover for NZ, and the need to play only three matches and finally allowing for the selectors preferences:

1st XV for NZ
Sheridan
Chuter
White
Grewcock
Jones
Moody
Sanderson
Corry

Perry
Hodgson
Lewsey
Barkley
Smith
Cueto
Morgan

Bench for NZ
Freshwater
Mears
Kay
Forrester
Richards
Allen
Noon

2nd XV may not play together but will be mixed with 1st XV against SA and Argentina
Freshwater
Mears
Barnard
Kay
Shaw
Lund
Lipman
Forrester

Richards
Barkley
Cohen
Allen
Noon
Varndell
Voyce

Blaming the ref

I never accept blaming the ref, it is just an excuse for losing. It is true that refs vary and some are better than others, but at the highest levels none are so bad that you can't play with them. Playing to the conditions is part of the game, and the ref is part of the conditions. Any team, but particularly a professional team, should adapt to the ref pretty quickly. If he tells you to stop doing something, then stop. A professional team should have done their research and know what is allowed and what isn't. You can try it on in the opening minutes and if the ref pings you, stop. Being a Tigers fan I know that one of their strengths over the years was playing to the edge of what the ref allows, I would encourage all teams to find that edge and play on it but not over it.

Varndell to Bedford

A small point; he was not dropped in the conventional sense, Tigers wanted to give others players game time against good opposition and at the same time felt Varndell should not be left twiddling his thumbs due to the lack of A games; he would be picked if it was an HC game. Another point overlooked, and I give credit to Tigers, is that there is a little more space in ND1 and there is nothing better for sharpening your attacking tools than a run in space. It is hard to practice game breaks in the premiership, and Tigers had pinpointed a specific problem for Varndell, that he wasn't backing his pace as he had last season. A consequence of Tuquiri dumping him in to touch perhaps? That 80m try for Bedford should get the feeling back! A few of Tigers youngsters are getting a chance to play week in week out for Bedford, and developing there rugby brain in a way I don't think they can always do in the A league.

Has Abbott missed the boat?

For a long time most people have advocated Abbott for the 12 shirt, but I am beginning to think he may have missed the boat. I strongly suspect that Barkley is inked in for the starting spot, based on previous selections. I also know that Abbott is not a favourite of the England management, even when he had a chance in the summer they did their best to ignore him. I personally am favouring Flood to play in a Catt type role, but I noticed that Allen was picked when the injuries mounted, even though Flood was available. Allen has been getting great reviews all season, and certainly has the class from the bits I saw last year, and crucially he is physically capable of handling internationals. Throw in the fact that Wilkinson and Farrell are favoured players should they ever be fit and in form, then I am left to think that Abbott will miss out.

My prediction for the New Zealand match is Hodgson and Barkley to start with Allen on the bench