England Squad

The squad has been announced and has a few differences from mine.

Props
I added Julian White, Robinson added Freshwater and put White on the reserve list. Freshwater left Leicester when White joined, and went to France. Freshwater had a good tour with England and does more around the pitch than White, who did not do the job in the scrum for the Lions and if he's not doing that he's not doing anything.
The starting pair will be Sheridan and Vickery, Freshwater could be a surprise on the Bench but I still expect it to be Stevens.

Hookers
Robinson went for two hooker and so left out Titterell, but keeps him on the reserve list. Tough on Titterell but an opportunity for Mears, who will be on the bench behind Thompson.

Second Row
Robinson prefers Grewcock to Hooper. I accept that Hooper was my longest shot on the list, but I do not accept Grewcock as a replacement, although I know that he will probably be in the match 22. I expect the starters to be Shaw and Brown, and I would have Palmer on the bench but I expect Robinson to have Grewcock there.

Back Row
With only two hookers Robinson has gone for an extra back row forward in the shape of Sanderson. As I mentioned before I felt he had a poor tour, but now he is here I hope he plays well. I would start with Moody and Corry and give Sanderson a chance, playing Forrester from the bench. I suspect Robinson will have a similar line up but with Worsley in place of Sanderson.

Scrum Half
No changes here, it will be interesting to see who plays. I would start Dawson as I don't think the Ellis or Richards have enough form to start, I will play Richards on the bench for maximum impact.

Fly Half
I thought there was a need for three fly halves, Robinson does not and so King is not included; Hodgson will start.

Centres
Robinson has gone for Noon over Tait, which I consider fair to Noon but I would still like to see Tait involved beyond the reserve list he is on. I still prefer Abbott and Smith, with Tindall being the good bench man, I suspect Robinson will ignore Smith, promote Tindall and put Noon on the bench.

Back Three
Balshaw has been preferred to Voyce. I am not yet convinced about Balshaw, in fantasy land Balshaw is in but until I have seen prolonged form I will keep my doubts, so Voyce is unlucky. I will go with Simpson-Daniel, Cueto and Lewsey with van Gisbergen on the bench. I suspect Robinson will play van Gisbergen in place of Simpson-Daniel and play Balshaw from the bench.

Premiership Predictions

After four rounds my original predictions for the relegation are looking bad, Worcester are far too good, they will be in the top half at this rate; and they will not be losing many internationals either. I was pleased to see Bristol at the top for a while, although Gloucester seemed to teach them a thing or two. Both Bristol and Irish are having a crack, and have good forwards, so I think by the end of the season they should be playing well enough to avoid the drop.

Bath are very poor, a real surprise. At the moment I am thinking it will be another six-way battle to avoid the drop: Newcastle, Northampton, Leeds, Bath, Bristol and Irish. Of those at the bottom only Bath are really going to be hit by international call ups, so it may be difficult for them. Newcastle, they will play some good rugby, but there will not be enough consistency to get them to the top. Jonny will play a couple of games around Christmas and new year, then be lost again for the six nations. Finegan may get them moving, but there are some very good packs around, Newcastle and Northampton being the worst. Leeds I think they have had some tough fixtures so I expect to see better results from them. Northampton's form may be up and down.

If I were voting for a team to go down I would go for Bath, geographically they are too close to Bristol for my great strategic master plan. But I think they will find enough so to push even further I will go for two teams to be battling it out for the drop, Newcastle and Northampton: Spencer v Wilkinson, Reihana v Burke, a quality fight.

Leicester and Wasps are pulling away already, but I still expect the others to keep them honest. Gloucester and Sale are where I thought they would be but Saracens are not, but I still expect more from them, they have played had some tough fixtures so far.

I look forward to the next few rounds.

England Squad

With Andy Robinson naming a squad of 30 next Tuesday I thought I should build on my last squad selection.

Props
I will only add Julian White at this stage.

Second Row
I'm still happy with my selection despite Leeds poor start. I haven't actually seen Leeds so I have no reason to change. For now I will add Alex Brown, he continues to perform and deserves a chance.

Back Row
The biggest problem is the injury to Rees, he was looking good. I will have to add Worsley and Forrester. I still have reservations about Forrester but he is too good in attack to be ignored.

Scrum Half
I do not need to add anyone, but I am concerned about the lack of form. Fortunately there are other scrum halves performing well so far; Perry at Bristol and Powell at Worcester stand out and if form continues will pressure the others.

Fly Half
With Wilkinson out, there is a need to add another. Both Walder and King have started well, but I will go with King, for the first time he seems to be attacking the game.

Centres
Few really good performances to note, but Tindall is still a dominant force. I am never sure about him, but love his attitude.

Back Three
Again not much change, but I am happy to add van Gisbergen, now that he is qualified. The main change we have to take account of is that Jason Robinson has retired from international rugby.

We will see what Andy Robinson does.

Premiership 2005-2006

The Premiership season is about to begin so it is time for predictions. Looking at the last few seasons and current squads I see the table splitting in to four sections.

Top Table
Leicester, Wasps
These two have set the standard time and again, and they will continue to do so season. I don't expect either team to get as far in front as they did last year but they will be the teams to beat for the title.

Challengers
Saracens, Sale, Gloucester, Bath
These four teams have the squads to push the top two all the way.
Sale are the only team to really perform at the same level as the top two, but they could not sustain their performance during the international weekends. Sale have lost two players, Redpath and Baxendell, who I think were crucial to the high quality back play of the last few seasons. Without these two I think Sale may struggle to produce the dynamic play of recent years. On the plus side they have brought in Taylor and Taione who will be able to bring something new to the team, if they stay fit. Wigglesworth also impressed me at the end of the season, and I look forward to him showing some form this season.
Saracens I think could be a real contender this season. Their squad looks good, and their coach seems to be doing the right thing. I will have to wait to see if the produce the performances required.
Gloucester, I don'’t like the way they play and I don't like the coach, but their squad is too strong to be ignored, and I expect a temporary freshness to their play following Melville's departure.
Bath still have one of the best packs, it is just their backs that let them down. If they click in attack then they could produce some good wins, otherwise they will just be a very frustrating team to play.

Mid Table
Leeds, Northampton, Newcastle
All these teams have something about them that will ensure they avoid the relegation zone, but they still have enough doubts to keep them from being challengers.
Leeds are the most exciting, although they were close to relegation last season, they produced some great performances at the end of the season. Their pack looks very good, but it was their backs that underperformed, the off season signings have been astute and Marshall in particular could prove to be the missing link.
Northampton are too underpowered up front to trouble opponents consistently, but their backs could be superb. Robinson, Spencer and Reihana, with Cohen and Lamont could be destructive, if they get the ball. I expect good early season performances and then to struggle when the mud comes and teams start to find their weak spots.
Newcastle have just enough to keep them up. I don't expect much from them, and alot relies on Wilkinson.

Relegation Zone
London Irish, Worcester, Bristol
Irish are a real conundrum; if they ever perform they could be dangerous. This team could make a real mess of predictions, but they won'’t
Worcester have not done enough during the off season, they are very awkward to play against but are not good enough.
Bristol sadly are destined for the drop. I have not seen much of them but history is against them despite Worcester'’s heroics last season. I like the coach'’s philosophy and I hope it works; it is probably time to expand and split the Premiership to allow teams like Bristol an opportunity to develop.



Leicester
Wasps
Saracens
Sale
Gloucester
Bath
Leeds
Northampton
Newcastle
London Irish
Worcester
Bristol