Premiership Predictions

After four rounds my original predictions for the relegation are looking bad, Worcester are far too good, they will be in the top half at this rate; and they will not be losing many internationals either. I was pleased to see Bristol at the top for a while, although Gloucester seemed to teach them a thing or two. Both Bristol and Irish are having a crack, and have good forwards, so I think by the end of the season they should be playing well enough to avoid the drop.

Bath are very poor, a real surprise. At the moment I am thinking it will be another six-way battle to avoid the drop: Newcastle, Northampton, Leeds, Bath, Bristol and Irish. Of those at the bottom only Bath are really going to be hit by international call ups, so it may be difficult for them. Newcastle, they will play some good rugby, but there will not be enough consistency to get them to the top. Jonny will play a couple of games around Christmas and new year, then be lost again for the six nations. Finegan may get them moving, but there are some very good packs around, Newcastle and Northampton being the worst. Leeds I think they have had some tough fixtures so I expect to see better results from them. Northampton's form may be up and down.

If I were voting for a team to go down I would go for Bath, geographically they are too close to Bristol for my great strategic master plan. But I think they will find enough so to push even further I will go for two teams to be battling it out for the drop, Newcastle and Northampton: Spencer v Wilkinson, Reihana v Burke, a quality fight.

Leicester and Wasps are pulling away already, but I still expect the others to keep them honest. Gloucester and Sale are where I thought they would be but Saracens are not, but I still expect more from them, they have played had some tough fixtures so far.

I look forward to the next few rounds.